Did China know Russia would invade Ukraine?
Did China know Russia would invade Ukraine?
Some believe China’s leadership was aware of Putin’s plans to invade the neighboring Slavic country. However, the facts on the ground suggest otherwise.
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Abstract: Russia’s war with Ukraine has put China in an uncomfortable position. It now faces three irreconcilable choices:
Support Russia at the risk of contradicting core principles of its foreign policy and angering the West, abandon its alliance and support the West, or do nothing and tarnish its image as a responsible great power. Chinese foreign policy is risk-averse. At the same time, China has economic interests in Ukraine. Chinese scholars were announcing that a war would not happen, officials openly rejected US intelligence reports, and the embassy was complacent in evacuation planning. All considered China was likely caught by surprise when Russia invaded.
Bottom-line-up-front: The Russian invasion of Ukraine seems to have caught Beijing off-guard. This may have been due to a “mirror image” bias, in which Beijing based its assessments of Russian behavior on Chinese military philosophy.
Problem statement: How to assess the People’s Republic of China’s knowledge about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
So what?: No matter what path Chinese decision-makers decide to pursue, they would do well to appreciate the differing mental frameworks that shape other countries’ thinking and behavior. For analysts wishing to accurately interpret China’s behavior, it is critical to account for the broader contextual factors that underlie Beijing’s strategic calculations and avoid the temptation of jumping to conclusions.
Read the full article at Defense Horizon Journal.
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